14 to 21 storms predicted for 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher) for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season – which would make this year the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.
NOAA forecasts that six to ten of those storms could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and three to six could become major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
“Specifically, there’s a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of the below-normal season”, said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad.
The agency cited that the increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.
NOAA’s prediction largely agrees with the outlooks issued earlier by Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project as well as The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2.
Below are the selected names reserved for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. If eventually, more than 21 storms end up developing, that means forecasters will have exhausted the designated tropical cyclone list for the third consecutive year. A supplemental list then comes into use.
The Atlantic tropical cyclones had been named from lists originated by the National Hurricane Center, in use since 1953. The names are maintained and updated by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. The hurricane name lists are used in rotation and are re-cycled every six years. This means that the list used in 2022 will be used again in 2028.
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. The Climate Prediction Center will give an update in early August before peak season, officials said.
Hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and extends to November 30