Rest of hurricane season to be “extremely active”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted that the rest of the hurricane season to be “extremely active”.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said there could be up to 25 storms which have sustained winds of 39mph or greater.
“This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average. We’ve never forecast up to 25 storms,so this is the first time,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center.
The previous high was in 2005, when the agency predicted a maximum of 21 named storms.
Bell added that the combined intensity and duration of all storms during the season is predicted to be much higher than the threshold for an “extremely active” season.
Of the 25 possible named storms, NOAA estimates seven to eleven could become hurricanes, which have winds of at least 74mph. The agency also forecast that three to six storms could become major hurricanes (Cat 3+), with winds of 111mph or more.
NOAA's *Updated* 2020 Atlantic #HurricaneSeason Outlook now calls for: 19-25 named storms, of which 7-11 could become hurricanes, including 3-6 major hurricanes.
— NOAA (@NOAA) August 6, 2020
Graphics at https://t.co/mJuHVNZbnG @NWS @NWSCPC #HurricaneOutlook #ItOnlyTakesOne pic.twitter.com/GUNX3vany8
However, NOAA cautions that their hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast.
“Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline,” the organization added.
In a normal year, there are usually two storms on average by early August. But, so far, the season has been off to a rapid pace, with a record-setting nine named storms already.
The last system, Hurricane Isaias, marked the fifth storm to make landfall this season, about two weeks ahead of record pace.
Colorado State University, which also consistently makes hurricane predictions and forecasts, also issued an update to its 2020 forecast.
Seasonal forecast from @ColoradoStateU increased & now calls for extremely active 2020 Atlantic #hurricane season: 24 named storms (including 9 that have already formed), 12 hurricanes (including 2 that have already formed) & 5 major (Cat 3+) hurricanes:https://t.co/wL1t2D2mgx pic.twitter.com/DfZgG3CAyC
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) August 5, 2020